Jan 30:
We are happy to note that the Indian Economy is on a strong macroeconomic fundamental pitch despite a fragile and fragmented geopolitical environment, said Mr. Rajeev Juneja, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry in a press statement..
“The central theme of the survey is the paradox of macroeconomic strength and external vulnerability with growth, inflation control and fiscal consolidation has put India on sturdy footing. The Economic Survey outlines three global scenarios for 2026. First, a baseline of managed disorder with continued volatility but no systemic collapse. Second, a disorderly multipolar breakdown marked by intensified geopolitical competition and financial stress. Thirdly, a low probability but high impact systemic shock”, said Mr. Rajeev Juneja.
Remarkably, across all the scenarios, India remains well positioned than its Asian peers as well as G7. This position is edified in the large domestic market, stable foreign reserves but vulnerabilities from capital flow disruptions remain, he added. On the fiscal policy front, the survey emphasizes consolidation of debt and capital expenditure. The Union Government has reduced its fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP and targets 4.4% in FY 2026. However, unconditional cash transfers at the state level pose risk of crowding out of private expenditure, said Mr. Juneja.
In terms of monetary and financial conditions, the survey provides a structural coherent argument emanating from high cost of capital due to net importer of savings. It notes durable reduction in capital cost is required to transform India through increase in exports and productivity gains, said Mr. Juneja.
We appreciate the stabilizing role of service exports which have grown significantly faster than merchandise exports resulting in currency stability. Recent trade agreements, notably, the India-EU FTA were highlighted as opportunities to deepen manufacturing integration as domestic competitiveness improves, said Mr. Juneja.
Dr. Ranjeet Mehta, CEO & SG, PHDCCI said a country capable of not only surviving but thriving during uncertainty both geopolitical and geo-economics is a destination for greater foreign capital inflows. Overall, the survey argues that India must maximize growth and build buffers against shocks simultaneously for lasting resilience and global influence.
